The 98th Academy Awards are shaping up to be one of the most entertaining and unpredictable races in recent memory. Instead of a single film steamrolling the categories, voters are juggling sprawling historical epics, intimate character studies, and bold literary adaptations. Big names like Timothée Chalamet, Michael B. Jordan, and Jessie Buckley are in the spotlight, but there’s serious buzz around standout performances from ensemble-driven films like Sinners and transformative turns in smaller, riskier projects like Marty Supreme. Technical darlings such as Frankenstein and Hamnet also threaten to steal the night in craft categories. It’s a year that could reward either masterful precision or audacious risk-taking — and honestly, a few surprises are overdue.
Best Picture is wide open. One Battle After Another is the critic darling and a guild favorite, but don’t be shocked if Sinners, with its massive ensemble and social commentary, pulls off a shock upset. Meanwhile, films like Hamnet and Bugonia are quietly building momentum, and if voters want to reward originality over prestige, one of these could sneak a win. This is one of those years where the frontrunner could easily stumble if the Academy gets tired of “safe” picks.
Best Director feels like a lock for Paul Thomas Anderson, but don’t write off Ryan Coogler or even an outsider like Julia Ducournau — both of whom have delivered visually daring, emotionally charged work this season. If someone unconventional wins here, it would signal a real shift in the Academy’s mood, and it could upend Best Picture expectations in the process.
Best Actor is razor-tight. Timothée Chalamet’s literary adaptation in Marty Supreme showcases charm, vulnerability, and classic Oscar-bait intensity. Michael B. Jordan in Sinners brings raw, emotionally volatile energy that’s impossible to ignore. This could come down to a single scene that sticks with voters, and if Chalamet loses, it won’t be a shock — this is a year where the Academy could reward heat over pedigree.
Best Actress is similarly deliciously messy. Jessie Buckley in Hamnet has been the critics’ favorite, delivering quiet intensity and psychological depth, but don’t underestimate a late-season surge from someone in a flashier, riskier role — a performance that scares the Academy just enough to feel revolutionary.
Supporting categories are where things could get chaotic and fun. Sean Penn and Jacob Elordi have the nominations and visibility, but scene-stealers from smaller or genre-bending films like Frankenstein could turn the night into a genuine surprise party. Supporting Actress may reward someone whose work elevates the film’s whole tone, or a performance that makes you gasp and laugh in equal measure — the Academy loves a little drama.
Screenplay awards this year are shaping up to reward clever, ambitious writing. Original Screenplay favorites like Sinners could pull off wins if voters want to celebrate narrative bravery, while Adapted Screenplay contenders like One Battle After Another or Hamnet could dominate if they see precision in translating complex material.
Technical categories may steal the show if voters get bored with the top-line awards. Films like Frankenstein and Hamnet are visually stunning, with costumes, production design, and cinematography that demand attention. A win here can make a smaller or overlooked film the night’s talking point.
Overall, the 2026 Oscars feel like a messy, high-stakes playground. This is a year where critics’ favorites, audience darlings, and bold technical achievements collide. Expect a night of surprises, debates, and maybe even a few controversial choices — exactly what keeps the Oscars watchable.
